[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 5 10:54:17 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. There has
hardly been any significant event today. However, an
event observed in the late hours of 03 March is worth
mentioning. A long duration C2.4 (03March/2105UT from
an approximate position S27E72) was associated with a
partial halo CME from the South-Eastern limb. This CME
may have a glancing effect on the geomagnetic activity
during late hours on 05 March UTday or during early hours
on 06 March UTday. Region 296 is still the largest region
on the disk and holds potentical for low level M-class
flare. The solar wind speed gradually rose from approximately
450 km/s to 650 km/s during the first half of the UT day
and then gradually decreased back to 450 km/s by the time
of writing this report. The north-south component of the
inter-planetary magnetic field remained predominantly
norhtwards throughout the day, except for short periods of
southward orientation. This orientation of Bz helped keep
the geomagnetic activity at a lower level than expected
otherwise.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Mostly unsettled to active.
Minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 20 4344 3334
Darwin 16 3343 3334
Townsville 18 3344 3334
Learmonth 28 5344 4444
Canberra 20 4344 3333
Hobart 20 4344 3333
Casey(Ant) 27 4554 333-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 3123 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled. Active levels possible in late
hours.
06 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled. Active levels possible in early
hours.
07 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to decline
to mostly unsettled level on 05 March UT day as the solar
wind stream due to the coronal hole activity seems to have
started to subside. However, an expected glancing effect
of a partial halo CME, observed on 03 March, may cause a
rise in geomagnetic activity to active level during late
hours on 05 March or early hours on 06 March. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled level
thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next three days. However, periods of minor to
mild degradations may be observed on mid- and high latitudes
during late hours on 05 March or early hours on 06 March if
a rise in geomagnetic activity does eventuate due to an
expected glancing effect of a CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 95 near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 95 near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 100 about 5% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on
4 March and is current for interval 4-5 March. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal in the Southern
Australian/NZ during the next three days. However, minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed after local dawn on 6 March due to expected enhanced
geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 60900 K
Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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