[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 4 10:50:27 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was very low today. Only a
few B-class flares were observed, the largest being a
B9.5 at 1830UT from region 296(N11E35). Region 296 is
currently the largest region on the disc and holds
potential for isolated low level M-class flare. The
coronal hole activity due to a recurrent high speed
stream coronal hole seems to have started slightly
earlier than expected. The solar wind slowed down to
a speed of approximately 350 km/s in the first half
of the day. It gradually increased to approximately
460 km/s during the second half of the day by the
time of writing this report. The north-south component
of the inter-planetary magnetic field was stable on
the positive side during the first half of the day but
showed mild to moderate fluctuations between north and
south directions throughout the second half of the
UTday. The coronal hole effect is expected to keep the
geomagnetic activity enhanced during the next two days.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at 'unsettled to active' level on 4 March with possibility
of going upto 'minor storm' levels at times. The geomagnetic
activity may be expected to gradually come down to lower
levels during the two days thereafter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 2132 3444
Darwin 13 2222 3444
Townsville 14 2132 3444
Learmonth 21 3222 3554
Canberra 13 2122 3444
Hobart 14 -122 3444
Casey(Ant) 21 3-43 4345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period)
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 2333 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm possible.
05 Mar 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
06 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled. Active levels possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at 'unsettled to active' levels with possibility
of minor storm periods on 04 March (UT day), 2003 due to
the effect of a recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually come
down to lower levels (mostly active to unsettled) during
the next two days thereafter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
05 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be expected on 04 and 05 March, especially at mid- and high
latitudes, due to the expected enhanced geomagnetic activity
during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 75 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Mar 80 near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 85 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild degradations may be observed on 04 and
possibly on 05 March in the HF conditions in Southern
Australian/NZ regions due to expected enhanced geomagnetic
activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 76600 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list