[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters suggest the continued presence 
of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream with speeds of 
approximately 500km/s. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3223 3333
      Darwin              12   3223 3333
      Townsville          11   2123 3333
      Learmonth           14   3223 4333
      Canberra            12   3123 4323
      Hobart              13   3224 3323
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--4 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAR : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             26   4454 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Mar    12    Unsettled 
08 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled 
levels with possible active periods for 06 March. Activity is 
expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for 7-8 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, minor depressions may be observed 
at times for southern regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar   105    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Mar   110    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Mar   110    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, minor depressions may be observed 
at times for southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 514 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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