[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 28 08:17:28 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed now fast at 650 to 700 km/sec over
past 24 hours. Solar wind is expected to remain fast for next
few days due to extent of coronal hole producing this high speed
wind stream. Returning region 375 now known as new region 397, has
begun to rotate arond the north-east limb with a quite large leader spot
visible. At this stage the region doesnt appear that complex,
but a complete assessment will have to wait until more of the
region has rotated into view, as other spots appear to be behind
the large leader spot. So far this region has been producing
just C class events. Nevertheless, this region was very active
on its past rotation and at least some M class activity seems
reasonable to expect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 20 3443 4332
Darwin 18 3443 3332
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 18 3433 4332
Canberra 20 3344 4333
Hobart 20 3344 4332
Casey(Ant) 17 4433 32--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JUN :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 199 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 4344 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 25 Active, isolated minor storm periods.
29 Jun 20 Active, isolated minor storm periods.
30 Jun 20 Active, isolated minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 25 June and
is current for interval 28-30 June. Active to minor storm periods
expected next three days due to coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
29 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Spread F observed local night hours.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Some spreead F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 80 near predicted monthly values (North Aus)
28 Jun 60 depressed 15%/near normal (south Aus/NZ)
29 Jun 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 26 June
and is current for interval 27-29 June. Degraded HF comms quality
observed local night hours at some southern region sites last
night. Mild depressions possible after local dawn this morning
southern Aus/NZ region. A generally degraded interval is over
the next few days for southern Aus/NZ region due to solar coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Northern Aus region MUFs expected
to again be near to 15% above predicted monthly values. Also,
shortwave fadeout activity may increase over next few days, due
to likelyhood of previously active solar region rotating onto
solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.3E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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