[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 27 08:38:00 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was moderately elevated until 12UT, 
when the Earth (earlier than expected) entered the coronal hole 
wind stream from the large equatorial coronal hole, now located 
in the centre of the solar disk (SEC SXI imagery). Solar wind 
speed gradually rose from 550km/sec at 12 UT to 750 km/sec at 
time of issue of this report. The north south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field became mildly southward (5-10nT) 
after coronal hole wind stream entry. Also, the solar wind toward/away 
phi angle (from ACE data) showed a 180 degree flip from toward 
to away from the Sun, as we entered the the coronal hole's wind 
stream. Such direction re-orientations can be associated with 
geomagnetic disturbances. SEC SXI imagery also shows a decent 
"xray emission plume" on the north-east limb, which is the anticipated 
return of old SEC region 375. No spots visible yet. Solar activity 
may increase in coming days as SEC GOES xray flux satellite data is 
showing increasing variability and some C class flare activity which are 
presumed to originate from this returning region. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   3334 5223
      Darwin              19   3334 5223
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           19   3334 5222
      Canberra            19   2334 5322
      Hobart              14   2334 4213
      Casey(Ant)          20   3333 53--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUN : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19   3343 3444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun    35    Active to minor storm conditions 
28 Jun    25    Active, with minor storm periods. 
29 Jun    20    Active, isolated minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 25 June and 
is current for interval 28-30 June. Coronal hole high speed wind 
stream entry earlier than expected. Minor storm period observed 
on entry into wind stream. Active to minor storm periods expected 
next three days due to this wind stream. Increased geomagnetic 
pulsation activity (pulsation storm) is expected over the next few 
days due to the previously observed correlation between coronal 
hole wind streams and pulsation activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
28 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
29 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed local night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible after local dawn this morning 
southern Aus/NZ region. A generally degraded interval is expected 
over the next few days for southern Aus/NZ region as the Earth entered 
a coronal hole wind stream at about 12UT on 26 June. Northern 
Aus region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly 
values. Also, shortwave fadeout activity may increase over next 
few days, due to likelyhood of previously active solar region 
rotating onto solar disk. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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