[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 29 08:32:45 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued fast at 650 to 750 km/sec over 
past 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated southward over the past 24 hours, and 
was southward 10nT during interval 07-16UT. Elevated solar wind 
conditions expected to persist due to broad width of coronal hole 
producing this wind stream. Solar region 397 on near north-east limb 
has rotated further onto solar disk. At this stage, spot distribution is 
open, with a large leader spot followed by scattered trailer 
spots. As the region has an open configuration , flare probability 
does not seem that high. This may change if spot development 
occurs, possibly most likely in the trailers spots of this region. 
Isolated M class flare activity possble. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   3445 4322
      Darwin              24   3445 4332
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           22   3345 4323
      Canberra            26   3436 4322
      Hobart              26   3436 4322
      Casey(Ant)          19   3344 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUN : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           53   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           134   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             162   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             28   4464 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun    20    Active, isolated minor storm periods. 
30 Jun    20    Active, isolated minor storm periods. 
01 Jul    21    Active, isolated minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 25 June and 
is current for interval 28-30 June. Active to minor storm periods 
expected next three days due to coronal hole wind stream. A pulsation
storm is in progress in asscoiation with this wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
30 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
01 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed local night at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Jun    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Jul    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 26 June 
and is current for interval 27-29 June. Degraded HF comms quality 
observed local night hours at some southern region sites last 
night. Mild depressions possible after local dawn this morning 
southern Aus/NZ region. A generally degraded interval is over 
the next few days for southern Aus/NZ region due to solar coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. Northern Aus region MUFs expected 
to again be near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 686 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   324000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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