[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 20 08:45:29 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
+++CORRECTED COPY - OBSERVED REGIONAL MUFS CORRECTION +++
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: The Sun has been relatively quiet over the past 24 hours. 
The flare threat from solar region 386 may have eased slightly 
with the magnetic neutral line (separating areas of opposite 
magnetic polarity) in this region possibly appearing less tightly 
twisted. Although the region still retains its mixed polarity 
configuration. The region to the north-east of 386, region 387, 
mentioned yesterday, appears to be showing some growth in area 
and magentic complexity. Solar activity forecast has been decreased 
to moderate with the chance for high activity. Solar wind 
speed has remained elevated at around 550km/sec due to coronal 
hole high speed wind streams. Solar wind is expected to remain 
elevated for the next 3 to 6 days, as coronal hole structures 
span the visible disk in the southern solar hemisphere (SOHO 
EIT284 imagery). ACE EPAM shock arrival precursor channel showed 
an increease in low energy ion flux from about mid 18 Jun. This 
rise rolled off during 19 Jun. This may mean that the shock from 
the recent M6.7 flare may be very weak. Event parameters suggested 
an anticpated arrival during first half of 20 Jun. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3333 2223
      Darwin              12   3333 2233
      Townsville           7   3222 2124
      Learmonth           10   3223 2232
      Canberra            10   3233 2223
      Hobart              10   3233 2223
      Casey(Ant)          16   4433 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           59   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           106   (Major storm)
      Hobart             134   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        36
           Planetary             54   5676 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun    25    unsettled to active with chance of minor storm 
                periods. 
21 Jun    22    Unsettled to active 
22 Jun    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 18 June and 
is current for interval 19-21 June. Geomagnetic forecast eased 
due to ACE EPAM data suggesting shock from recent M6.7 flare 
will be weaker than expected. A very weak to moderate shock arrival 
is still possible on 20 Jun. Coronal hole high speed stream effects 
are expected to cause elevated background geomgnetic activity 
over the coming week. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 2050UT 18/06, Ended at 1540UT 19/06
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
21 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
22 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Weak proton event ended 1540UT, improving conditions 
at high latitudes. Conditions over coming days may be better 
that originally forecast, but still mildly to moderately degraded 
at mid to high latitudes. Fadeouts threat easing. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jun    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-20% local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed. Some absorption observed. 


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 18 June 
and is current for interval 19-21 June (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ 
MUFs depressed yesterday. Milder depressions are now expected 
over coming days, restricted to southern Aus/NZ region. Northern 
Aus region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly 
values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 554 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:   233000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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