[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 20 08:42:27 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: The Sun has been relatively quiet over the past 24 hours.
The flare threat from solar region 386 may have eased slightly
with the magnetic neutral line (separating areas of opposite
magnetic polarity) in this region possibly appearing less tightly
twisted. Although the region still retains its mixed polarity
configuration. The region to the north-east of 386, region 387,
mentioned yesterday, appears to be showing some growth in area
and magentic complexity. Solar activity forecast has been decreased
to moderate with the chance for high activity. Solar wind
speed has remained elevated at around 550km/sec due to coronal
hole high speed wind streams. Solar wind is expected to remain
elevated for the next 3 to 6 days, as coronal hole structures
span the visible disk in the southern solar hemisphere (SOHO
EIT284 imagery). ACE EPAM shock arrival precursor channel showed
an increease in low energy ion flux from about mid 18 Jun. This
rise rolled off during 19 Jun. This may mean that the shock from
the recent M6.7 flare may be very weak. Event parameters suggested
an anticpated arrival during first half of 20 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 3333 2223
Darwin 12 3333 2233
Townsville 7 3222 2124
Learmonth 10 3223 2232
Canberra 10 3233 2223
Hobart 10 3233 2223
Casey(Ant) 16 4433 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 106 (Major storm)
Hobart 134 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 54 5676 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 25 unsettled to active with chance of minor storm
periods.
21 Jun 22 Unsettled to active
22 Jun 18 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 18 June and
is current for interval 19-21 June. Geomagnetic forecast eased
due to ACE EPAM data suggesting shock from recent M6.7 flare
will be weaker than expected. A very weak to moderate shock arrival
is still possible on 20 Jun. Coronal hole high speed stream effects
are expected to cause elevated background geomgnetic activity
over the coming week.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Fair-normal Poor-Fair
PCA Event : Began at 2050UT 18/06, Ended at 1540UT 19/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
22 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Weak proton event ended 1540UT, improving conditions
at high latitudes. Conditions over coming days may be better
that originally forecast, but still mildly to moderately degraded
at mid to high latitudes. Fadeouts threat easing.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15-20% local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 18 June
and is current for interval 19-21 June (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ
MUFs depressed yesterday. Milder depressions are now expected
over coming days, restricted to southern Aus/NZ region. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 554 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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