[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 19 08:47:45 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.8 17/2255UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at around
0429UT on 18 Jun. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was southward 10nT for interval 05-09UT following shock
arrival. This shock was most likely from an X1 flare late on
15 Jun, produced by active region 386, in solar south-east quadrant.
The more recent M6.7 flare was also produced by region 386 (S07E55)
and was associated with type II and IV radio spectrograph sweeps,
(observed on the Culgoora radio spectrograph) suggesting a coronal
mass ejection had occurred. Indeed, LASCO C3 imagery showed a mass
ejection visible from 2316UT. However, due to this regions eastward
location, the mass ejection was again biased predominately eastward.
Event details suggest another glancing blow can be expected during
the first half of the UT day on 20 Jun. Elevated background solar
wind speeds due to coronal holes may cause shock to arrive sooner
than expected. Note that as this region rotates further around
the solar disk any further mass ejections are likely to become
more geoeffective. The coronal hole structures on the visible
solar disk consist of a large isolated equatorial coronal hole
to the north-west of the solar central meridan and another isolated
coronal hole just to the south-east of solar central meridian.
It appears the Earth entered the wind stream from the western
located coronal hole during the second half of 18 Jun. Solar wind
speeds expected to remain elevated due to high speed wind streams
from these structures over the next 3 to 6 days. The M6.7 event
had a slow xray decline and a weak proton event began at around
2050UT on 18 Jun. Further flares are likely from region 386.
Also, the region to the north-east of 386, (SEC number 387,
location N18E62) looks bright in Culgoora H-alpha imagery and
may be showing development. Shortwave fadeouts likely
on daylight HF circuits.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 26 3445 3443
Darwin 29 3445 3453
Townsville 31 3446 3444
Learmonth 32 3346 3453
Canberra 24 34-- 4443
Hobart 24 34-- 4443
Casey(Ant) 15 3324 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JUN :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 50 5666 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 20 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
20 Jun 35 active to minor storm, with the chance of major
storm periods.
21 Jun 22 active to minor storm, with the chance of major
storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 18 June and
is current for interval 19-21 June. Disturbed conditions observed
over past 24 hours due to combined effects of weak shock arriva
and coronal hole high speed wind stream entry. Coronal hole high
speed stream effects are expected to cause elevated background
geomgnetic activity over the coming week. In addition , a weak
to moderate shock arrival is expected on 20 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 18 06 2003 2050UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Poor(PCA)
20 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
21 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Polar region HF conditions degraded late in UT day due
t weak proton event. Generally degraded conditions expected mid
to highlatitudes over coming week. SWFs are expected over the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 20 depressed 15 to 20% (Southern Aus/NZ region)
19 Jun 65 near predicted monthly values (Northern Aus region)
20 Jun 55 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 55 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 18 June
and is current for interval 19-21 June. Southern Aus/NZ region
MUFs depressed after local dawn this morning. Southern Aus/NZ MUFs
expected to be 15-20% depressed after local dawn over the next
few days. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted
monthly values. SWFs are expected over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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