[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 18 10:04:53 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.8 2256UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar region 386 (region 365 last rotation) has produced
M- and X-class flare activity since rotating around the east
limb. Further M- and X-class flare activity is possible over
the next few days from this region. A type II sweep was observed
in association with the M6.8 flare at 2254UT on 17 June, with
estimated shock speed of 1000km/s. Solar wind speeds have declined
slowly over the past 24 hours to around 480km/s.The CME observed
in association with the X1.3 flare at 2356UT on 15 June is primarily
directed eastward, and is not expected to be very geoffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 27 4445 4423
Darwin 28 4445 4433
Townsville 28 4445 4433
Learmonth 27 4445 4424
Canberra 27 454- 4424
Hobart 34 455- 5423
Casey(Ant) 17 4433 3322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUN :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 83 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 32 4525 4356
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 16 Unsettled to active
19 Jun 20 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
20 Jun 20 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
COMMENT: Minor to major storm periods were observed during 17
June. Mostly unsettled to active levels are expected for 18 June,
with the small chance of minor storm levels due to a possible
glancing blow from the CME observed in association with the X1.3
flare on June 15. Minor storm periods again possible for 19-20
June due to a coronal hole that is expected to be in a geoeffective
position by 19 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for the next
few days as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity. SWFs are expected over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 10-20% at times to near predicted
monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 75 Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times.
19 Jun 75 Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times.
20 Jun 75 Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 16 June
and is current for interval 16-18 June (SWFs) . Mild depressions
are possible at times for the next few days as the result of
anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected
over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list