[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: A weak shock (change in speed across shock was only 
about 60km/sec) was observed in the solar wind at 0755UT on 20 
Jun. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) fluctuated southward 10nT postshock, then turned northward 
by about 5nT. This shock is believed to be from the recent M6.8 flare 
from region 386. Solar wind speed is currently moderately elevated 
due to solar coronal holes, and is expected to remain elevated 
over the next few days. The Sun has been realtively quiet again 
over the past 24 hours. Solar regions 386, 387 and 388 have some
degree of solar flare potential. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2332 2322
      Darwin              12   2332 2423
      Townsville           8   1232 2322
      Learmonth           10   2232 2332
      Canberra            10   1232 2422
      Hobart               8   1232 2322
      Casey(Ant)          15   3433 2332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JUN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            67   (Active)
      Hobart              87   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18   5443 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
22 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
23 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 18 June and 
is current for interval 19-21 June. A weak sudden impulse was 
observed at 0838UT on 20 Jun. No significant geomagnetic activity 
followed impulse. The impulse is believed to be from the recent 
M6.8 flare/CME. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are expected 
to cause elevated background geomgnetic activity over the coming 
week. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No Event.
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradion periods possible at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values 
      during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15%  to near normal.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Jun    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 18 June 
and is current for interval 19-21 June (SWFs) . Mild depressions 
are expected over coming days, restricted to southern Aus/NZ 
region. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above 
predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   MSG
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  24
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 567 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   181000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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