[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 21 09:42:51 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class
flares were recorded most of which were from region
410(S12W26) - the largest being a C5.6 flare at 1608UT.
The solar wind slowed down from 650 km/s to 560 km/s
(approx.) during the first few hours of the UT day and
then remained steady around 560 km/s during the rest of
the UT day. The N/S component of the inter-planetary magnetic
field remained mostly positive, but it showed minor N/S
fluctuations in the second half of the day. The solar activity
is expected to remain at low to moderate levels during the
next 3 days. Regions 410 and 412 are continuing to show
growth. Region 410 seems to be M-flare capable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 3332 3223
Darwin 10 3232 3224
Townsville 11 3332 3224
Learmonth 9 3222 3222
Canberra 11 3332 3224
Hobart 12 3333 3223
Casey(Ant) 13 3433 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JUL :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 72 (Active)
Hobart 93 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26 4334 4445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
22 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
23 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: The coronal hole induced solar wind stream seems
to have slowed down. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to gradually slow down over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor depressions may be observed at high latitudes
at times during the next two days due to possible continued
slight elevations in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
of degradatoins.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 76 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
22 Jul 78 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
23 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal in the
Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 560 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 168000 K
Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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