[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 156/110

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class 
flares were recorded- the largest being a C3.3 flare at 
0228UT from region 410(S12W40). The solar wind gradually 
slowed down from 600 km/s to 430 km/s (approx.) during 
the UT day. The N/S component of the inter-planetary 
magnetic field remained mildly but predominantly northwards. 
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels 
during the next 3 days. Region 417(S21W49) showed some 
growth today whereas region 410 has started to decline in 
complexity. Region 410 still holds potential for isolated 
M-class flare. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   3211 1122
      Darwin               4   2211 1123
      Townsville           4   3210 0111
      Learmonth            4   3210 0021
      Canberra             3   2210 1012
      Hobart               3   2210 1021
      Casey(Ant)          10   3332 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19   5443 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
23 Jul    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
24 Jul    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: The coronal hole induced solar wind stream seems 
to have further slowed down. The geomagnetic activity is 
expected to gradually slow down over the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor depressions may be observed at high latitudes 
at times on 22 July due to possible continued slight elevations 
in geomagnetic activity levels. The HF conditions are expected 
to remain mostly normal for two days thereafter. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Jul    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
23 Jul    82    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
24 Jul    84    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal in the 
Australian/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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