[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 19 09:55:01 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B- and C-class
flares were observed from regions 412(N17W06) and 410(S11W01)-
the largest being a C5.4 flare at 0005UT from region 410.
The solar wind stream has slowed down. The solar wind speed
decreased from 630 km/s to 500 km/s (approximately) during the
early hours of the UT day and remained steady at 500 km/s
thereafter throughout the day. The N/S component of the
inter-planetary magnetic field remained mostly positive,
but it fluctuated between +5 and -6nT (approx.) during the
last few hours of the UT day. The solar activity is expected
to remain at low to moderate levels during the next 3 days.
Regions 409 (N15E05), 410 and 412 seem to be M-flare capable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 2221 1233
Darwin 8 3221 1232
Townsville 5 2221 1123
Learmonth 6 2221 1132
Canberra 5 2221 1223
Hobart 5 2211 1223
Casey(Ant) 14 3322 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JUL :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Hobart 141 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22 5433 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 16 Mostly quiet to active. Isolated short minor
storm periods possible.
20 Jul 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
21 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 18 July
and is current for interval 19 July only. The coronal hole
induced solar wind stream seems to have slowed down today.
However, there remains some possibility of enhancement in
geomagnetic activity on 19 July due to a possible glancing
effect of the partial halo CME observed on 17 July. Isolated
short periods of minor geomagnetic storm may be observed on
19 July if this effect eventuates. Otherwise geomagnetic
activity is expected to slow down during the next three days
as the coronal hole effect subsides.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions may be observed at high
latitudes at times on 19 July due to possible elevations in
geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 68 near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%.
21 Jul 72 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal in the
northern Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
However, isolated periods of minor to mild depressions are
possible especially in the southern Australian/NZ regions
on 19 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 611 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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