[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 18 09:53:48 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class
flares were observed from regions 412(N16E05) and 410(S12E12)-
the largest being a C9.8 flare at 0824UT from region 412.
Type II and type IV activities were recorded at Learmonth
associated with this C9-flare. However, no significant mass
ejection activity could be associated with these events.
The solar wind stream is still going strong due to the
coronal hole effect. The solar wind speed increased from
580 km/s to 750 km/s (approximately) during the early hours
of the UT day but then decreased gradually to 560 km/s by
0900UT. The solar wind speed kept fluctuating between 550
and 650 km/s (approx.) during the rest of the day. The N/S
component of the inter-planetary magnetic field remained
mostly positive, but it fluctuated between +7 and -7nT
(approx.) during the second half of the UT day. Region
409(N16E27) still remains the largest region on the disk.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels
during the next 3 days. However, there is some possibility
of an M-flare from region 409, 410 and 412.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Mostly unsettled to active
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 3324 3333
Darwin 13 3323 3333
Townsville 13 4223 3323
Learmonth 14 3224 3333
Canberra 14 3224 3333
Hobart 15 3334 3323
Casey(Ant) 13 3333 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUL :
Townsville 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 93 (Minor storm)
Hobart 140 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 48 4566 6445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 16 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
19 Jul 15 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
20 Jul 17 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: The Earth is still under the influence of a coronal
hole solar wind stream which has produced active and isolated
minor storm periods during the past 24 hours. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to mostly remain at unsettled levels with
some possibility of having active periods during the next 2 days
due to continued strengthening of the solar wind stream by the
current coronal hole as it is widely spread in the east-west
directions. There is some possibility of further enhancement
in the geomagnetic activity on day3 due to a possible effect
of the C9 flare and Type II and IV observed today. However no
significant mass ejection could be associated with these events
until the time of writing this report.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed at high latitudes
at times during the next three days due to possible mild elevations
in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%.
19 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
20 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 17 July
and is current for interval 17-18 July. MUFs are expected to
remain mostly normal to enhanced by approximately 15% through
northern Australian/NZ regions during the next three days. Isolated
periods of minor depressions are possible in southern Australian/NZ
regions during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 248000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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