[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 17 09:52:18 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 133/87

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 410(S12E28) 
produced three C-class flares- C1.3/1223UT, C1.2/1610UT 
and C2.9/1635UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 600 
km/s to 520 km/s (approximately) during the early hours 
of the UT day but then increased gradually to 650 km/s
during the rest of the day. The N/S component of the 
inter-planetary magnetic field remained mostly positive, 
but it went negative between 0600 and 1100UT and a major 
storm was recorded for a short time during this period.
It seems to have been caused by the current coronal hole 
effect. The solar activity is expected to remain at low 
levels during the next 3 days. However, there is some 
possibility of M-flare from region 410 and/or 409(N16E27). 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Unsettled to major storm. 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   3455 4333
      Darwin              21   3444 4333
      Townsville          25   2355 4333
      Learmonth           28   2355 5334
      Canberra            37   3456 5433
      Hobart              30   345- 5433
      Casey(Ant)          20   3444 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUL : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           51   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           110   (Major storm)
      Hobart             134   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             27   5535 3344     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul    25    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
18 Jul    15    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
19 Jul    12    Mostly unsettled. 
COMMENT: The Earth is currently under the influence of a 
coronal hole solar wind stream which has produced active 
and isolated major storm periods during the past 24 hours. 
Active and isolated minor storm periods are again possible 
for 17 July, with activity levels declining thereafter. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed at high latitudes 
at times on 17 July due to possible mild elevations in the
geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Jul    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%. 
18 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%. 
19 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal to slightly 
enhanced through most of the Australian region during the next 
three days. However, isolated periods of minor depressions are 
also possible on 17 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  
Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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