[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             123/76             121/73
COMMENT: Region 409 is capable of producing M-class flare activity. 
Solar wind parameters suggest the Earth is currently under the 
influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream, with wind speeds 
above 550 km/s observed over the past 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3424 3134
      Darwin              16   3434 2233
      Townsville          15   3424 3134
      Learmonth           16   3325 3135
      Canberra            15   3424 3134
      Hobart              15   3334 3134
      Casey(Ant)          12   3323 3135
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUL : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            93   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              94   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   3342 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
17 Jul    16    Unsettled to active 
18 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 15 July and 
is current for interval 15-16 July. The Earth is currently under 
the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream which has produced 
active and isolated minor storm periods during the past 24 hours. 
Active and isolated minor storm periods are again possible for 
16 July, with activity levels declining for 17-18 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed at mid-high latitudes 
at times for 16 July due to mildly elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    70    Depressed 5-10% at times otherwise near predicted 
                monthly values. 
17 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed for southern regions 
at times for 16 July due to mildly elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 503 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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