[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.2/1F    0444UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity was observed today. Region 
260 (N14W13) produced an M1.2 flare at 0444UT/22 January. 
This flare could not be co-related to any other event. As 
expected, the broad horizontal section of the coronal hole 
seems to be showing its effect now. The solar wind speed 
decreased from 600 km/s to 500 km/s (approx) during the 
first half of the UT day and then rose to 650 km/s (approx) 
in the second half of the day. At the time of writing this 
report, the solar wind speed seems to be somewhat steady 
at about 650 km/s for the last one hour. The north-south 
component of the inter-planetary magnetic field showed 
fluctuations between north and south directions throughout 
the day. However, it remained mildly but mostly southwards. 
Region 267(S20E51) is showing a slow growth. Region 267 
and 269(S09E63) have potential for low level M-class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3323 3324
      Darwin              11   3322 3325
      Townsville          10   2223 3324
      Learmonth           10   3222 3324
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              11   2332 3324
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JAN : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             17   3334 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan    20    Unsettled to minor storms. 
24 Jan    25    Active to minor storms. 
25 Jan    25    Active to minor storms. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 21 January 
and is current for interval 23-24 January. The horizontal 
section of the coronal hole seems to be showing its effect 
now. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at unsettled to minor storm levels during the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
24 Jan      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor     
25 Jan      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Mild/moderately degraded conditions expected at 
high latitudes due to an expected rise in the geo-magnetic 
activity during the next three days. Mild degradations may 
also be observed at mid-latitudes during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jan   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan   110    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
24 Jan   100    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern 
                Aus. 
25 Jan   100    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern 
                Aus. 
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected in the southern Aus/NZ 
region during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 678 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   255000 K  
Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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