[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 22 10:15:53 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1526UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 700 to 600km/sec over
the UT day. Wind speed may decline further today before increasing
again during 22-24 Jan due to a broad horizontal section of coronal
hole which is now just past solar central meridian. Solar region
260 (just east of the solar central meridian) produced two minor
flares that were associated with Type II radio sweeps. Both Type
II events had a shock speed of around 700km/sec. The first flare
was a C8 at 0228UT, the second event was a C4 at 0557UT. LASCO
C3 imagery was checked and neither of these events appeared to
be CME associated. (A blind shock(s) arrival window based on
radio-sweep data is 20UT on 23 Jan to 09 UT on 24 Jan). Also,
some activity observed on the solar south east limb. A mass ejection
was observed late in the UT day, at around 16UT, apparently centred
just south of the solar equator. The M1.9 event appears associated
with this mass ejection, as a loop prominance system (which may
have been post flare loops) were reported around 16UT on the
south east limb at S12E90. This information suggests that an
interesting region may be about to rotate onto the solar disk.
Another day is probably needed for this region to rotate further
on-disk. Isolated M class activity likely.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 3334 3223
Darwin 12 3333 3223
Townsville 13 2334 3223
Learmonth 12 3223 3333
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 14 3334 3223
Casey(Ant) 18 ---4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JAN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 5423 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Jan 20 Active, chance of minor storm periods.
24 Jan 20 Active, chance of minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 21 January and
is current for interval 23-24 January. An eastward arm of a coronal
hole is expected to produce activity 22-24 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
24 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild/moderately degraded conditions at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25% during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 100 near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 90 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern Aus.
24 Jan 90 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern Aus.
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected 23-24 Jan southern Aus/NZ
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 696 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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