[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 24 10:51:12 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.5/1N    1243UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    0448UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 136/90

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity was observed today. 
Region 266(S22E13) produced a C6 flare at 0434UT and 
two M-class flares (M1.0 at 0449UT and M2.5 at 1244UT). 
Culgoora spectrograph recorded two TYPE II events between 
0435 and 0455UT which can be related to the C6 and M1.0 
flares. The shock speed was calculated as 324 km/s and 
370 km/s (approx) for the two TYPE II events respectively, 
which suggests a possible shock arrival sometime on 26 
January (UT Day). However, the LASCO imagery did not show 
any CME that could be associated with these TYPE IIs and, 
therefore, these shocks are unlikely to arrive on the earth. 
The third TYPE II, recorded at 1239 UT was associated with 
the M2.5 flare with an expected velocity of 578 km/s. No 
CME was observed around this time either- once again making 
it unlikely to receive a shock on the earth due to this 
event. Region 263(S11W68) also produced a C4.5 flare at 
0219 UT. Regions 263 and 266 are growing and hold the 
potential for M-class acitivity. As expected, the solar 
wind speed remained enhanced due to the coronal hole effect. 
The solar wind speed kept fluctuating between 600 km/s and 
680 km/s (approx) throughout the UT day. The north-south 
component of the inter-planetary magnetic field showed 
moderate fluctuations between north and south directions 
throughout the day. The coronal hole effect is expected to 
continue for the next two days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Mostly quiet to active with
isolated periods of minor storm. 

Estimated Indices 23 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4322 3324
      Darwin              11   3322 3325
      Townsville          10   3322 3223
      Learmonth           11   3322 3324
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              15   4422 3233
      Casey(Ant)          24   5--3 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JAN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              66   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   3333 3335     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan    25    Mostly unsettled to active with periods of isolated 
                to minor storm levels. 
25 Jan    25    Mostly unsettled to active. 
26 Jan    20    Mostly unsettled. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 21 January 
and is current for interval 23-24 January. The geo-magnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly at unsettled to minor 
storm levels tomorrow and then gradually decrease to unsettled 
to quiet level during the two days after that. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mild/moderately degraded conditions expected at 
high latitudes due to enhanced geo-magnetic activity 
during the the next two days. Mild degradations may also 
be observed at mid-latitudes during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Jan    99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of depressions and degradations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan   100    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern 
                Aus. 
25 Jan   105    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern 
                Aus. 
26 Jan   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 23 
January and is current for interval 23-25 January. Mild 
degradation expected in the southern Aus/NZ region during 
the next two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 592 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   181000 K  
Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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