[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 24 10:51:12 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5/1N 1243UT possible lower European
M1.0 0448UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity was observed today.
Region 266(S22E13) produced a C6 flare at 0434UT and
two M-class flares (M1.0 at 0449UT and M2.5 at 1244UT).
Culgoora spectrograph recorded two TYPE II events between
0435 and 0455UT which can be related to the C6 and M1.0
flares. The shock speed was calculated as 324 km/s and
370 km/s (approx) for the two TYPE II events respectively,
which suggests a possible shock arrival sometime on 26
January (UT Day). However, the LASCO imagery did not show
any CME that could be associated with these TYPE IIs and,
therefore, these shocks are unlikely to arrive on the earth.
The third TYPE II, recorded at 1239 UT was associated with
the M2.5 flare with an expected velocity of 578 km/s. No
CME was observed around this time either- once again making
it unlikely to receive a shock on the earth due to this
event. Region 263(S11W68) also produced a C4.5 flare at
0219 UT. Regions 263 and 266 are growing and hold the
potential for M-class acitivity. As expected, the solar
wind speed remained enhanced due to the coronal hole effect.
The solar wind speed kept fluctuating between 600 km/s and
680 km/s (approx) throughout the UT day. The north-south
component of the inter-planetary magnetic field showed
moderate fluctuations between north and south directions
throughout the day. The coronal hole effect is expected to
continue for the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Mostly quiet to active with
isolated periods of minor storm.
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 4322 3324
Darwin 11 3322 3325
Townsville 10 3322 3223
Learmonth 11 3322 3324
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 15 4422 3233
Casey(Ant) 24 5--3 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 66 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 3333 3335
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 25 Mostly unsettled to active with periods of isolated
to minor storm levels.
25 Jan 25 Mostly unsettled to active.
26 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 21 January
and is current for interval 23-24 January. The geo-magnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at unsettled to minor
storm levels tomorrow and then gradually decrease to unsettled
to quiet level during the two days after that.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild/moderately degraded conditions expected at
high latitudes due to enhanced geo-magnetic activity
during the the next two days. Mild degradations may also
be observed at mid-latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 100 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern
Aus.
25 Jan 105 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern
Aus.
26 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 23
January and is current for interval 23-25 January. Mild
degradation expected in the southern Aus/NZ region during
the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 592 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 181000 K
Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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