[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 8 08:25:17 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed further increased from 450 to 650km/sec
over the UT day, and the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz), flucuated southward by up to 10nT between
15-20UT. Continued fast solar wind speed expected today. The
coronal hole producing this wind stream can been seen in SEC
SXI and SOHO EIT imagery, now as a large north polar extension
coronal hole, stretching down over the solar equator. Solar region
424 (near disk centre) was quiet over past 24 hours. Solar region
421 is far south west quadrant, produced isolated C class flare
activity. Also, SOHO EIT imagery indicates that new regions are
behind the south (brighter) and north east limbs. Isolated low
level M class activity possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 18 2222 4454
Darwin 12 2222 3344
Townsville 15 1222 4444
Learmonth 21 1222 4555
Canberra 16 1211 4454
Hobart 14 1210 3454
Casey(Ant) 15 3332 43--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 34
Planetary 43 6675 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 25 Active to minor storm
09 Aug 20 Active to minor storm
10 Aug 14 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 3 August and
is current for interval 6-8 August. Minor storm periods observed
late in UT day in association with southward IMF, and fast solar
wind speed conditions. Coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
activity now expected to continue for next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair-Poor
09 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Continued degraded conditions expected at mid to high
latitudes , particularly during local night hours next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values (North Aus)
08 Aug 55 depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values(South Aus)
09 Aug 55 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 August
and is current for interval 7-9 August. Mild depressions expected
after local and degraded HF communications quality for southern
Aus/NZ region particularly during local night hours next two
days. Northern Aus/PNG region MUFs (mid to low latitudes) expected
to remain near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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