[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 7 09:26:25 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed showed a slight rise from 450 to 500km/sec
over the UT day, and the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz), was southward by up to 10nT between 00-06UT.
This may be indicating the entry into the coronal hole wind stream
from the transequatorial coronal hole now in the Sun's western
hemisphere. Solar wind speed is expected to gradually increase
today. Solar regions were quiet over past 24 hours. Solar region
424 is the most likely source for isolated low level M class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 3343 3212
Darwin 21 3344 ----
Townsville 15 3443 3113
Learmonth 16 4343 3222
Canberra 15 3353 3102
Hobart 15 3353 3102
Casey(Ant) 19 3443 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3211 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 20 Active to minor storm
08 Aug 25 Active to minor storm
09 Aug 14 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 3 August and
is current for interval 6-8 August. Minor storm period early
in UT day associated with southward interplanetary magnetic field
during interval 00-06UT. Active to minor storm conditions expected
next two days due to coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions at high latitudes degraded due to geomagnetic
activity associated with southward IMF. Continued degraded conditions
expected at mid to high latitudes, particularly during local
night hours next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 55 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 August
and is current for interval 7-9 August. Regional MUFs had a positive
response to geomagnetic activity early in the UT day on 06 Aug.
Further geomagnetic activity is expected over the next two days
(induced by a solar coronal hole wind stream) which is expected
to degrade HF communications quality for southern Aus/NZ region
particularly during local night hours. MUFs appear near predicted
monthly values after dawn this morning. However, some MUFs depressions
may be experienced after local dawn over 8 and 9 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high)
X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 32800 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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