[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 6 08:23:45 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7/SN 1249UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline from 500 to 400km/sec
over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to "bottom out"
today and gradually increase late on 06 Aug as the Earth enters another
coronal hole wind stream from a transequatorial coronal hole.
The M1.7 flare was impulsive and originated from solar region
424 (S15E33). A slow (339km/sec) Type II sweep was reported with
this event. A subsequent review of US LASCO space based coronagraph
imagery showed no sign of an presumed south-east direct mass
ejection, implying that no material escaped the Sun. A bubble
like feature was visible to the north-east but this was in progress
before the flare began. This implies that no shock will arrive
at the earth from this event. Solar region 424 has been reported
as showing some growth and solar region 421 (in south west quadrant)
produced a minor C3 flare at around 0914UT. Isolated low level
M class events expected today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 3221 1112
Darwin 5 3221 1112
Townsville 5 3221 1112
Learmonth 5 3221 0102
Canberra 3 2220 0002
Hobart 1 2110 0002
Casey(Ant) 6 2232 2012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 AUG :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 2244 1244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 16 Unsettled to active
07 Aug 20 Active to minor storm
08 Aug 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 3 August and
is current for interval 6-8 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions
initially expected today, then gradually intensifying geomagnetic
conditions over next few days due to anticipated entry into coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Aug Fair Fair Poor-Fair
COMMENT: A gradual return to degraded HF conditions is expected
at mid to high latitudes over next few days. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced 15% early in UT day, then
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 55 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 August
and is current for interval 7-9 August. A gradual return to degraded
conditions is expected for southern Aus/NZ region over next few
days, due induced geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole high
speed wind stream. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain
near predicted monthly values. Isolated shortwave fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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