[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 9 08:22:11 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 600km/sec to nearly
800km/sec over the UT day. Elevated wind speed due to a coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Solar region 424 (now showing signs
of decline) and 425 produced some very minor flare activity.
Region 425 is just to the north of 424, which is just past the
centre of the solar disk. A previously moderate to large, and
magnetically complex but non flaring solar region, numbered as
410 on previous rotation, appears to be returning to the south
east limb. Isolated low level M class activity possible. Yet
another coronal hole is visible in the north-east solar quadrant.
This Earth is expected to enter the wind stream from this hole
around 11-12 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 24 4543 3433
Darwin 23 4543 3333
Townsville 27 4553 3433
Learmonth 29 4553 3443
Canberra 26 4544 3433
Hobart 23 4444 3433
Casey(Ant) 19 4443 2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 AUG :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 65 (Active)
Canberra 159 (Severe storm)
Hobart 180 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 2212 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 20 Active to minor storm
10 Aug 14 Initially active, then unsettled.
11 Aug 10 Initially quiet to unsettled, then becoming active.
COMMENT: Coronal hole high speed wind stream induced activity
expected to continue for today then is expected to show a declining
trend. Another coronal hole is then expected to induce activity
starting late 11 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Continued degraded conditions expected at mid to high
latitudes today then an improving trend. Another mild/moderately
degraded interval is expected to begin around 11-12 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
15% depressed to near normal.
Blanketing spoardic E observed later in day.
Some spread F.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 August
and is current for interval 7-9 August. Mild depressions possible
after local dawn southern Aus/NZ region. Also, mildly degraded
conditions may be experienced during local night hours. Norther
region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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