[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129
COMMENT: Large solar region 162 in suns north-east quadrant has 
been relatively quiet over past 24 hours, however region remains 
M flare capable, and appears to be increasing in magnetic complexity. 
Large coronal hole is visible in the Sun's eastern hemisphere. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was strongly northward toward end of the UT day, a condition 
that reduces geoeffectiveness. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 137 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 23 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2212
      Darwin               9   23-3 222-
      Townsville           5   2212 211-
      Learmonth            7   3212 2222
      Canberra             5   2221 2212
      Hobart               5   2221 2111
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---3 12--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              76   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2312 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Oct    16    Initially quiet, active periods possible second 
                half UT day. 
24 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Field is expected to be quiet for today. Chance for 
weak impulse late on 23 Oct. Also, Coronal hole induced activity 
may be experienced 26-29 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions possible at mid to 
high latitudes 23 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct   135    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Oct   135    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Oct   135    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 634 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   197000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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