[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1535UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 169/123

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119
COMMENT: Large solar region 162 in suns north-east quadrant produced 
the M1. This region is now magnetically complex, indicating that 
further M class activity is likely, however there have been few 
emissions observed on the Culgoora radio spectrograph, suggesting 
that any activity will be sporadic. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field has again been mildly northward 
(generally reducing geoeeffectiveness of solar events), and solar 
wind speed is currently mildly elevated around 450km/sec. The 
large coronal hole in the Suns eastern hemisphere is approaching 
solar central meridian and is expected to increase wind speed 
during interval 26-29 Oct. However, if IMF orientation remains 
northward effects will be reduced. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 137 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 23 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2224 4222
      Darwin               9   2223 3223
      Townsville          11   2124 4213
      Learmonth           10   2223 3232
      Canberra            12   2224 4221
      Hobart              12   2224 4221
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2332 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct    16    Initially quiet, active periods possible second 
                half UT day. 
24 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
25 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 22 October 
and is current for interval 26-29 October. Chance for weak impulse 
late on 23 Oct. Also, Coronal hole induced activity may be experienced 
26-29 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions possible at mid to 
high latitudes late on 23 Oct. A coronal hole induced degradation 
is probable 26-29 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Oct   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct   135    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Oct   120    depressed 15%/enhanced 15% 
25 Oct   135    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs expected for most of today. Chance for 
mild depression late 23/24 Oct southern region only. Also, coronal 
hole induced disturbance possible 26-29 Oct (southern region 
only). 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 571 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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