[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0045UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.5    0342UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0515UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.9    1429UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 180/133

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            175/129
COMMENT: Solar region 162 in Suns north-east quadrant and solar 
region 160 in south-west quadrant produced M class activity over 
past 24 hours. The M1 event at 1429 UT was associated with a Type 
II radio sweep. A weak shock may reach the Earth during second 
half of 23 Oct. Both these regions have showed growth. Region 
162 is the largest region currently on-disk, and further flare 
activity is expected from this region. Also, a large coronal 
hole is visible in the Sun's eastern hemisphere. Solar wind speed 
has been moderately elevated at 600km/sec over past 24 hours, 
with a mildly northward Bz, probbaly from an earlier coronal 
hole. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3322 2123
      Darwin               8   3322 2123
      Townsville           8   3322 2123
      Learmonth            9   3322 2223
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               8   3322 2122
      Casey(Ant)          28   5543 42--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              96   (Minor storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3322 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Oct    16    Initially quiet, active periods possible second 
                half UT day. 
COMMENT: Field is expected to be quiet next few days. Chance 
for weak impulse late on 23 Oct. Also, Coronal hole induced 
activity may be experienced 26-29 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions possible at mid to 
high latitudes 23 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Oct   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Oct   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Oct   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depression observed after local dawn yesterday 
at some southern Aus sites. In particular MUFs were depressed 
30% at Mundaring (W.A.) local day yesterday. Enhanced MUFs expected 
for today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 660 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   345000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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