[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 146/100

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114
COMMENT: Weak Type II radio sweep event observed at 2016UT on 
Culgoora Spectrograph, associated with flare in H-alpha in trailer 
portion of solar region 198 (S18W37), and C6 xray flare 2029UT. 
Speed of Type II was estimated at around 900km/sec. Shock arrival 
window 07-19UT on 27 Nov. No LASCO imagery available to confirm 
mass ejection at time of issue of this report. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was again mildly 
southward for much of the UT day. Solar wind speed moderately 
elevated at 450km/sec, as coronal hole effects decline. Bright 
emmission can still be seen at N15 on eastlimb of the sun in 
SOHO EIT EUV imagery. Possible 175/177 returning. Also, previously 
active solar region 180 is due back to the south-east limb on 
27 Nov. An increase in M class flare activity may be experienced 
over coming days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3332 3333
      Darwin              10   3222 2333
      Townsville          10   2322 2333
      Learmonth           11   3222 3333
      Canberra            11   2232 3332
      Hobart              11   2232 3332
      Casey(Ant)          18   4444 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             19   4543 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Nov    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to trend to quiet 
levels over the the next two days. Active periods possible on 
27 Nov due to weak C6/Type II event if mass ejection occurred. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected for 27 Nov. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      15% enhanced after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      some sites 15% depressed after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Nov    90    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Some southern region sites 15% depressed after local 
dawn this morning. Northern region MUFs near to 15% enhanced. 
Generally improving HF conditions expected for next two days. 
Mild degradation possible on 27 Nov, southern region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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