[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: Solar wind speed started the day at 600km/sec declining 
to 450km/sec. as we leave the corona hole wind stream. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field again fluctuated 
mildly southward (5nT) over the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3333 3322
      Darwin              11   3322 3323
      Townsville          12   3332 3323
      Learmonth           12   3332 3323
      Canberra            12   3332 3322
      Hobart              13   3333 3322
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--4 3221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 NOV : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            76   (Active)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             24   5434 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov    11    Unsettled 
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to trend to quiet 
to unsettled levels over the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Improving HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov    50    depressed 15% (southern Aus/NZ region)
24 Nov   110    enhanced 20% (northern Aus region)
25 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions may be experienced for first half of UT
day southern Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus MUFs currently enhanced 20%.
Generally improving HF conditions expected over coming days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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