[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SN    1807UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 159/113


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1020UT 
on 20 Nov. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly (5-10nT) southward 16-20UT. A general increasing 
trend in solar wind speed is expected over the next 24hours as 
the Earth enters a high speed wind stream from a south-polar 
trans-equatorial solar coronal hole, which is now located in 
the western hemisphere of the solar disk, visible in SOHO EIT284 
imagery. Region 198 has the possibility of M-class flare activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3223 2444
      Darwin              18   3223 2454
      Townsville          14   3123 2443
      Learmonth           22   3124 2553
      Canberra            14   3223 1444
      Hobart              17   3223 1453
      Casey(Ant)          22   4--4 3434
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3332 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov    16    Initially unsettled, then increasing to active 
                levels. 
22 Nov    20    Active chance for minor storm periods. 
23 Nov    14    Initially active, declining to unsettled. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 20 November 
and is current for interval 21-23 November. A weak impulse was 
observed at 1108UT on 20 Nov. The field briefly reached minor 
storm levels following impule. Geomagnetic activity from this 
event is not expected to persist. However, a moderate disturbance 
is expected from a coronal hole high speed wind stream over coming 
days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected next two 
days mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Nov    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Some sites 20% depressed after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      pread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov    70    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Nov    80    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Nov    70    depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed after local dawn this 
morning at some sites. MUFs are expected to recover as day progresses. 
A further mild degradation can be expected for southern region 
sites from 22-24 Nov, due to anticipated coronal hole inuced 
geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    33900 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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