[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            155/109
COMMENT: Region 198 has the possibility of M-class flare activity. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3233 2234
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          10   3232 2234
      Learmonth           11   3233 2234
      Canberra             8   3222 1133
      Hobart              10   3332 1133
      Casey(Ant)          18   3--4 3244
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   3232 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Nov    12    Unsettled 
22 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods observed at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Fair-poor      Poor-fair      Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
21 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Widespread depressions of 20-30% observed in Australian 
and Antarctic regions. These conditions are expected to continue 
for the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
20 to 30% below predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov    60    Depressed 5-15% low latitudes. Southern Australian 
                and Antarctic regions depressed 10-20%. 
21 Nov    90    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
22 Nov   100    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 November 
and is current for interval 19-20 November. Widespread depressions 
of 20-30% observed in Australian and Antarctic regions. These 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.1E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060