[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 22 10:30:12 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions over the past 24 hours have been 
disturbed. A possible "solar sector boundary crossing" was apparent 
in the ACE data around 00UT on 21 Nov. Solar wind density rapidly 
increased prior to this at 21UT on 20 Nov, and remained at high 
densities till 06 UT on 21 Nov. The north-south component of 
the IMF unexpectedly became strongly southward 02-07 UT, peaking 
at 30nT south around 04-05 UT. Solar wind spped was relative 
stable at 480km/sec until 06UT on 21 Nov, after which solar wind 
speed increased to 700 km/sec and wind density rapidly dropped 
to low values, characteristic with a solar coronal hole wind 
stream. The large southward value of Bz is not normaly associated 
with coronal holes, and together with the high wind density suggest 
that these values are associated with "turbulence" at the discontinuity 
between the quiet solar wind and the solar wind from the coronal 
hole stream. Since the Earth has now entered the coronal hole 
stream further episodes of strong southward IMF are not expected. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 175 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 23 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Unsettled to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 21 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      40   5565 4333
      Darwin              29   5454 4334
      Townsville          32   5455 4333
      Learmonth           37   5455 5433
      Canberra            34   4564 4333
      Hobart              38   4565 4433
      Casey(Ant)          53   5675 4334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV : 
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra           119   (Major storm)
      Hobart             168   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             55                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17   3313 2444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov    20    active 
23 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
24 Nov    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 20 November 
and is current for interval 21-23 November. Unexpected major 
storm levels observed as Earth transitioned into coronal hole 
high speed wind stream. Active conditions expected today, then 
declining. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Strong degradation in HF conditions observed at mid 
to high latitudes over past 24 hours. Improved conditions expected 
today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov    80    depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Nov    85    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Nov    90    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Stronger than expected geomagnetic activity observed 
overnight. Variable conditions observed after local dawn this 
morning. Unusually, depressions were observed at some northern 
Aus region sites only (normally higher latitudes stations are 
most effected). 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.2E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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