[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 182/135


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129
COMMENT: Region 180 is now about to leave the solar disk. Region 
191 continues to grow and remains M flare capable, but has yet 
to produce significant activity. A general increasing trend is 
visible in GOES background Xray values. However, spectrograph 
is quiet.SOHO EIT284 EUV imagery shows a more or less trans 
equatorial coronal hole just past the centre of the solar disk. 
The Earth is expected to encounter the high speed stream from 
this hole in about 3 days time. Solar wind speed is currently 
mildly elevated at 500km/sec with a declining trend. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) is currently neutral. There is a chance for a weak 
shock arrival over next 24 hours from recent Tyep II/CME events. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 162 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 14 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4322 4123
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          11   3322 4123
      Learmonth           16   5322 4222
      Canberra            11   4322 3123
      Hobart              16   4432 412-
      Casey(Ant)          22   5--- 4223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   2233 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov    14    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
15 Nov    13    Initially unsettled, then active. 
16 Nov    20    Active to Minor storm. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 13 November 
and is current for interval 15-17 November. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled today. There is an outside 
chance of a weak CME arrival today. A coronal hole is expected 
to increase geomagnetic activity from late 15Nov and 16 Nov. 
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0107UT on 13 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected today. A degradation 
in HF conditions for mid to high latitudes is expected on 16 
Nov. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Nov   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Nov   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected today. Coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity is expected to cause a degradation 
in HF conditions on 16 Nov, for mid to high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 567 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   227000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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