[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    1856UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 178/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: Regions 180 and 191 have the chance of producing further 
M-class flare activity. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 162 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 14 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3343 3234
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          12   2333 3234
      Learmonth           12   2333 3233
      Canberra            13   3243 3134
      Hobart              15   3343 3134
      Casey(Ant)          19   ---4 3244
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 NOV : 
      Townsville          21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            98   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             133   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2233 4323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov    15    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
14 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
15 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 11 November 
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Anticipated geomagnetic 
storm activity has not yet eventuated. It is now considered unlikely 
that either of the two anticipated CMEs will impact the Earth. 
Further CME activity observed on 11 and 12 November is not considered 
to be earthward directed. Geomagnetic conditions should be mostly 
quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods over the next 
couple of days. A coronal hole solar wind stream is expected 
to impact the Earth 15-16 November and produce active to minor 
storm levels at times. 
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0253UT on 12 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Anticipated geomagnetic activity and subsequent ionospheric 
depressions did not eventuate. Mostly normal to enhanced ionospheric 
conditions are expected to continue for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov   129

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
14 Nov   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Nov   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 11 November 
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Anticipated geomagnetic 
activity and subsequent ionospheric depressions did not eventuate. 
Mostly normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions are expected 
to continue for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   249000 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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