[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 12 11:15:36 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:**RED** ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/2N 0733UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1/1N 1620UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Regions 180 and 191 have the chance of producing further
M-class flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 16 3334 4223
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 14 3233 4233
Learmonth 13 2333 4223
Canberra 14 3333 4223
Hobart 16 3344 3223
Casey(Ant) 22 ---5 4224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3452 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 25 Initially quiet to unsettled with storm periods
possible later in the UT day.
13 Nov 20 Unsettled to active
14 Nov 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 11 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Anticipated geomagnetic
storm activity has not yet eventuated. A step in solar wind speed
around 13UT on 11 November may be indicative of the arrival of
the M4-flare CME, however, Bz remained northward and only active
levels eventuated. There is still the chance the M4-flare CME
has not yet arrived and may arrive during 12 November. A CME
associated with the M2-flare observed on 10 November is also
expected to impact the Earth on 12 November. Active to minor
storm periods are expected with the arrival of either CME. Active
to minor storm periods are also possible over the next couple
of days from the influence of a coronal hole.
A weak (22nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1231UT on 11 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 1950UT 09/11, Ended at 0600UT 11/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be initially normal for
12 November with possible depressions of 10-20% later in the
UT day in response to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.
Depressions are expected at times for 13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed 5-15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 130 Initially enhanced with possible depressions
of 10-20% at times later in the UT day.
13 Nov 120 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 140 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 11 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November. HF conditions are
expected to be initially normal for 12 November with possible
depressions of 10-20% later in the UT day in response to anticipated
increased geomagnetic activity. Depressions are expected at times
for 13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 54800 K Bz: 13 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list