[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2N    0321UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 191/143


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133
COMMENT: Regions 180 and 191 have the chance of producing further 
M-class flare activity. The proton event which is currently in 
progress is likely to finish early on 11 November. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   4442 2223
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          15   4442 2222
      Learmonth           16   5342 2223
      Canberra            15   4442 2212
      Hobart              15   4442 2212
      Casey(Ant)          24   5-54 2224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 NOV : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              52   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              9   2212 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov    30    Initially quiet to unsettled with storm periods 
                expected later in the UT day. 
12 Nov    30    Active to minor storm 
13 Nov    20    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: The weak CME which impacted the Earth late in the UT 
day of 9 November produced a minor storm period during 10 November. 
The CME associated with the M4-flare observed on 9 November is 
expected to impact the Earth during 11 November and produce minor 
to major storm periods. Minor storm to active levels are expected 
to continue into 12 November due to the continued CME effects 
and the influence of an anticipated coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)-normal    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 09 11 2002 1950UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Poor          
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair     
13 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Increased absorption observed at Antarctic stations 
due to PCA event in progress. PCA event is expected to finish 
early on 11 November. HF conditions for low-mid latitudes are 
expected to be initially enhanced for 11 November with possible 
depressions of 15-30% later in the UT day of 11 November following 
the impact of a CME. Depressions are expected to continue at 
times for 12-13 November as geomagnetic activity continues. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov   168

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov   140    Initially enhanced with possible depressions 
                of 15-30% at times later in the UT day. 
12 Nov    70    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Nov    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Increased absorption observed at Antarctic stations 
due to PCA event in progress. PCA event is expected to finish 
early on 11 November. HF conditions for low-mid latitudes are 
expected to be initially enhanced for 11 November with possible 
depressions of 15-30% later in the UT day of 11 November following 
the impact of a CME. Depressions are expected to continue at 
times for 12-13 November as geomagnetic activity continues. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    22800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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