[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 15 10:10:47 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0017UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate to High Moderate to High
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: The M1 xray flare at the start of the UT day was optically
correlated with a flare in Culgoora H-Alpha imagery from solar
region 191. Region 191 is now near the solar central meridian.
The M1 xray event had a slow decline back to a backgground xray flux
of around C1. LASCO C3 imagery shows an eastern hemisphere directed
mass ejection first visible at 0142UT. (A weak front could bee
seen expanding around to the south-west). Whilst expansion was
predomiately eastward, a weak shock signature will probably arrive
late 15 early 16 Nov from this event. The H-alpha flare had a
weak parallel ribbon shape. However, no proton enhancement followed
the flare. Further flares seem likely from region 191. It also
appears that previously flaring region 162 has returned to the
north east limb of the solar disk. Bright emmission can be seen
on the north-east limb of the Sun in SOHO EIT imagery. This returning
region has been numbered 197 by US SEC. Flare activity will probably
pick up in coming days. Solar wind speed further declined to
400km/sec , with no sign yet of entry into the coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) moved to a mildly northward (non-geoeffective)
orientation toward the end of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 3312 3323
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 3 ---- --13
Learmonth 6 2212 2222
Canberra 10 2322 3322
Hobart 9 2311 332-
Casey(Ant) 15 4--3 2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 12 4322 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 13 Initially unsettled, then active.
16 Nov 20 Active to Minor storm.
17 Nov 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 13 November
and is current for interval 15-17 November. A coronal hole is
expected to increase geomagnetic activity from late 15 Nov. A
weak impulse is likely late on 15 early 16 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: A degradation in HF conditions for mid to high latitudes
is expected on 16 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 162
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-45%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 140 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov 115 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
17 Nov 100 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 14 November
and is current for interval 14-15 November (SWFs) . Generally
good HF conditions expected today. Coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity is expected to cause a degradation in HF conditions
on 16 Nov, for mid to high latitudes. A weak mass ejection
may be super-imposed on the coronal hole induced activity,
early 16 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 582 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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