[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 17 09:22:52 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 158/112
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: A long duration C4 flare was observed from solar region
9948, (location on disk S22E01), at 0035UT. This flare was associated
with a Type II sweep (speed 420km/sec) , observed on the Culgoora
radio spectrograph at 0028UT. LASCO imagery shows a full halo
mass ejection with this event. Despite the slow shock speed and
low associated xray flare magnitude, moderate geoeffectiveness
is expected due to the solar region of origin central solar location.
Another long duration C5 event was obsevred at around 05UT but
did not appear associated with a mass ejection. Event data of
the C4/CME suggests a shock arrival window 18/1600UT to 19/1400UT.
Also, a report from RWC-Belgium indicates that a new moderate to
large solar region is rotating around the north-east limb. Due to
regions proximity to east-limb magnetic complexity analysis is
not possible. However, region has been reported as active and
flare activity may increase over coming days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 5 2222 1122
Darwin 5 2222 1123
Townsville 5 2222 1121
Learmonth 7 1223 2122
Canberra 5 1222 1121
Hobart 4 1112 1121
Casey(Ant) 8 3322 11--
Davis(Ant) 11 33-3 22-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAY :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 16 4434 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 May 30 active to minor storm levels second half UT day.
19 May 25 active to minor storm levels first half UT day.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 16 May and
is current for interval 18-19 May, due to recent CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
19 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions mid to high latitudes expected
second half of 18 May and first half 19 May due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity from C4/CME. Effects at low/equatorial latitudes
expcted to be minor due to low event magnitude.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
16 May 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 May 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 May 110 Depressed 5-15% after local dawn, then returning
enhanced 5-15%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 16 May
and is current for interval 18-19 May. Degraded HF conditions
expected southern Aus/NZ region late 18-19 May, local night hours,
due to recent mass ejection. Strong MUF depressions in the Aus/NZ
region are not expected due to seasonal factors and low magnitude
of solar event. Brief depressions may be experienced after local
dawn on 19 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 69500 K Bz: 1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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