[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 18 09:06:45 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0123UT possible lower West Pacific
M1/-- 0754UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2/SF 1608UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 157/111
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: A erupting solar filament has been reported at around
05 UT on 17 May. LASCO EIT 195nm imagery shows some motion just
east of the centre of the solar disk in the approximate location
of this filament between 03-04 UT. Also, a mass ejection was
observed around the north-east limb early in the UT day. It is
not clear whether this mass ejection came from behind the limb
or this on disk activity. Despite this ambiguity the mass ejection
was primarily directed eastward reducing any geoeffectiveness
if it was a front-side event. However, mild geomagnetic effects
may be experieneced on 20 May. ACE EPAM 65-112keV precursor data
has passed the first IPS event flux threshold and the shock from
the C4 event is expected during the second half of the UT day
today. The region on the north-east quadrant (9957 N08E58) of
the solar disk, has now become magnetically complex and further
flare activity is expected. Also, speculatively, there could
be another possibly active region just slightly to the north
of 9957 but behind the east-limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 4 1122 2111
Darwin 3 1011 2112
Townsville 3 0012 2112
Learmonth 4 1121 2111
Canberra 3 0111 3101
Hobart 4 0012 3101
Casey(Ant) 5 1232 1111
Davis(Ant) 8 1232 3121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAY :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12 3323 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 30 active to minor storm levels second half UT day.
19 May 25 active to minor storm levels first half UT day.
20 May 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 16 May and
is current for interval 18-19 May. Increase geomagnetic activity
expected to begin second half of UT day today due to recent flare/mass
ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
19 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
20 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions mid to high latitudes expected
from second half of UT day today to 19 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
17 May 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 May 110 Depressed 5-15% after local dawn, then returning
enhanced 5-15%.
20 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 17 May
and is current for interval 17-19 May (SWFs) . Degraded HF conditions
expected southern Aus/NZ region late 18-19 May, local night hours,
due to recent mass ejection. Brief depressions may be experienced
after local dawn on 19 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: 2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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