[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0813UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 159/113

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            160/114



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3323 1322
      Darwin               9   3322 1313
      Townsville          11   3323 1323
      Learmonth           13   3323 ---1
      Canberra            11   2323 1332
      Hobart               9   2323 1322
      Casey(Ant)          13   3323 ----
      Davis(Ant)          14   4333 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAY : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             32   4564 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May    12    Unsettled 
17 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 May   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed 15% at times to enhanced 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly depressed up to 15% at times to near
      predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May   140    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 May   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 May   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   156000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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