[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**   ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 187/140

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            195/147



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 2122
      Darwin               9   3232 2223
      Townsville           6   3122 2112
      Learmonth            7   3122 2212
      Canberra             6   2222 2020
      Hobart               5   2122 2120
      Casey(Ant)           7   -232 11--
      Davis(Ant)          12   4332 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3123 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    25    Initially quiet, increasing to active to minor 
                storm levels during second half of UT day. 
10 May    25    Initially at active to minor storm levels then 
                declining to unsettled during second half of 
                UT day. 
11 May    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 7 May and is 
current for interval 9-10 May. Moderate CME induced disturbance 
expected 9-10 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
10 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
11 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions now expected late 9-10 May 
due to anticipated arrival of mass ejection. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
08 May   159

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May   140    Near predicted monthly values becoming depressed 
                10-20% towards the end of the UT day. 
10 May   120    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
11 May   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 7 May 
and is current for interval 9-10 May. Degraded conditions expected 
local night hours 9-10 May southern region Aus/NZ due to expected 
arrival of CME from M1 event. There is a chance for mild depressions 
to be experienced after local dawn on 10 May for southern regions 
only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:   10.0 p/cc  Temp:    70300 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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