[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 8 09:21:20 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0346UT  Confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 187/140

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            200/152
COMMENT: An M1.4 flare was osberved from solar region 9937 in 
the south-east quadrant of the solar disk. This flare was associated 
with a Type IV sweep and reported halo CME. A minor shortwave fadeout
was observed in the Aus/NZ region 0345-0415UT. A shock from the 
mass ejection is expected second half of UT day on 09 May. ACE 
EPAM precursor data is showing an increasing trend in flux, but 
is currently below IPS alert level. It is not clear what event 
this may be associated with, as it would appear to soon for association 
with the M1/CME event. The region that produced the CME has begun
to decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3221 2222
      Darwin               9   3322 2223
      Townsville           6   3111 2222
      Learmonth            6   3110 2222
      Canberra             4   2111 1222
      Hobart               4   2111 1222
      Casey(Ant)           7   3321 11--
      Davis(Ant)           9   2331 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   2113 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     7    Quiet 
09 May    25    Initially quiet, increasing to active to minor 
                storm levels during second half of UT day. 
10 May    18    Initially at active to minor storm levels then 
                declining to unsettled during second half of 
                UT day. 
COMMENT: Moderate CME induced disturbance expected 9-10 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair-Poor
10 May      Normal         Fair-Normal    Poor-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions now expected late 9-10 May due to 
anticipated arrival of mass ejection. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
07 May   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May   145    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 May   145    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 May   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected local night hours 9-10 May 
southern region Aus/NZ due to expected arrival of CME from M1 event. 
There is a chance for mild depressions to be experienced after local 
dawn on 10 May southern region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    49500 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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