[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 8 09:21:20 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0346UT Confirmed lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 187/140
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: An M1.4 flare was osberved from solar region 9937 in
the south-east quadrant of the solar disk. This flare was associated
with a Type IV sweep and reported halo CME. A minor shortwave fadeout
was observed in the Aus/NZ region 0345-0415UT. A shock from the
mass ejection is expected second half of UT day on 09 May. ACE
EPAM precursor data is showing an increasing trend in flux, but
is currently below IPS alert level. It is not clear what event
this may be associated with, as it would appear to soon for association
with the M1/CME event. The region that produced the CME has begun
to decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 7 3221 2222
Darwin 9 3322 2223
Townsville 6 3111 2222
Learmonth 6 3110 2222
Canberra 4 2111 1222
Hobart 4 2111 1222
Casey(Ant) 7 3321 11--
Davis(Ant) 9 2331 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAY :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 2113 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 7 Quiet
09 May 25 Initially quiet, increasing to active to minor
storm levels during second half of UT day.
10 May 18 Initially at active to minor storm levels then
declining to unsettled during second half of
UT day.
COMMENT: Moderate CME induced disturbance expected 9-10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair-Poor
10 May Normal Fair-Normal Poor-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions now expected late 9-10 May due to
anticipated arrival of mass ejection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
07 May 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 145 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 May 145 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 May 110 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected local night hours 9-10 May
southern region Aus/NZ due to expected arrival of CME from M1 event.
There is a chance for mild depressions to be experienced after local
dawn on 10 May southern region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 49500 K Bz: -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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