[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 191/143

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            205/156
COMMENT: Solar wind was at 320Km/sec to around 13 UT then rapidly 
rising to 380km/sec for rest of UT day. The north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated southward by 
5nT between 07-17UT. These structures are possibly a very weak 
indistinct shock signature from the north-west directed CME associated 
with a C7 flare at 2130UT on 02 May. Flare likelyhood is declining 
with no apparent return of 9906, and solar regions on disk declining. 
A strong CME was observed around 13UT but appears to be an event 
from behind the south east-limb and therefore not earth directed. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   1211 2323
      Darwin               8   2322 2223
      Townsville           6   0211 2323
      Learmonth            7   2112 2323
      Canberra             5   0101 2323
      Hobart               5   0101 2323
      Casey(Ant)           4   1212 1213
      Davis(Ant)           7   1221 2324
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              8   1112 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 May     7    Quiet 
09 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettled periods associated with mildly southward IMF. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
06 May   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    35100 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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