[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 190/143

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            195/147
COMMENT: A very weak indistinct shock signature was observed 
in the ACE data around 09-10UT. Timing suggests this shock is 
associated with the recent M1/CME. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field remained northward (5nT) 
post-shock. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 1111
      Darwin               9   3-32 212-
      Townsville           4   2212 1112
      Learmonth            3   2122 1002
      Canberra             4   2212 1012
      Hobart               3   1122 1001
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 2110
      Davis(Ant)           8   3232 2121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3332 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May     7    Quiet 
11 May     7    Quiet 
12 May     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Forecast increase in geomagnetic activity did not 
eventuate due to BZ remaining strongly northward post shock 
arrival. Quiet geomagnetic conditions now expected. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded conditions now not expected due to no geomagnetic 
activity following M1/CME shock arrival. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
09 May   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values. 
      Spread F observed second half UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
11 May   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
12 May   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Shock from M1/CME arrived overnight. However, no 
significant geomagnetic activity followed. Degradation in 
HF conditions now not expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    39300 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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