[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 178/131

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            190/143
COMMENT: Solar wind fluctuated around 600km/sec for much of the 
UT day, due to coronal hole high speed stream. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9825 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 7 Mar. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3333
      Darwin              10   3322 2324
      Learmonth           12   2332 3333
      Canberra            13   2333 3333
      Hobart              13   2333 3333
      Casey(Ant)          20   44-4 32--
      Davis(Ant)          22   34-- 4344
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAR : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            90   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             104   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3423 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that mild geomagnetic activity should 
continue 7 March then decline. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions expected to improve after 
today as coronal hole effects subside. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
06 Mar   162

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Mar   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
09 Mar   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed local night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 664 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   286000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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