[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 180/133

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            175/129



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 3123
      Darwin               9   2222 3233
      Learmonth            7   2222 3113
      Canberra             9   2223 3133
      Hobart               9   1323 3122
      Casey(Ant)          21   --43 ----
      Davis(Ant)          14   2443 3213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAR : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             15   2333 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
07 Mar   178

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
09 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 646 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   170000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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