[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 172/126

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind speed observed over past 24 hours 
due to coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased from 500km/sec 
to 700km/sec after 04UT. Solar wind speed is currently at 600km/sec. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9825 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 7 Mar. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 05 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   4534 3333
      Darwin              21   4533 3333
      Learmonth           18   4433 3333
      Canberra            21   4533 3333
      Hobart              20   4533 3323
      Casey(Ant)          32   56-4 3322
      Davis(Ant)          42   4655 44-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAR : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           103   (Major storm)
      Hobart             135   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2212 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar    16    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
07 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 4 March and 
is current for interval 4-6 March. Active periods are possible 
for 6 March due to a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 6 March as the result of recent slightly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 Mar   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30% at
      times.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar   140    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Mar   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Mar   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 6 March as the result of recent slightly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    9.8 p/cc  Temp:   166000 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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