[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    0036UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.4    2313UT  Confirmed   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 239/188


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            245/195            240/189
COMMENT: ACE EPAM precursor channel is yet to show an increasing 
flux trend signature, from recent M8 mass ejection. Major flares 
possible from active solar region 39 and to a lesser extent region 
44, which is showing slight decline. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   4322 2222
      Darwin               9   3322 2223
      Townsville          10   4322 2213
      Learmonth           12   4322 2---
      Canberra             7   3322 1112
      Hobart               7   3322 1112
      Casey(Ant)          18   4532 2230
      Davis(Ant)          16   4443 222-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUL : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             19   4334 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul    40    Initially quiet to unsettled with active to minor 
                storm levels expected late in the UT day. 
30 Jul    20    active 
31 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 28 July and 
is current for interval 28-29 July. The halo CME observed in 
association with the M8-flare of July 26 is now expected to impact 
the Earth late in the UT day of 29 July, due to lack of precursor 
signature on ACE EPAM data channel. Minor storm storm levels 
are expected to follow. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event. However, two solar regions are capable
	    of producing a proton flare.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
30 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected for late 29-30 July 
due to increased geomagnetic activity from an anticipated CME. 
Depressed MUFs likely in northern hemoisphere during this interval. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul   120    10% enhanced/near predicted monthly values. 
30 Jul   100    near predicted monthly values 
31 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 28 July 
and is current for interval 29-30 July. Degraded HF conditions 
are expected for 29-30 July due to increased geomagnetic activity 
from an anticipated CME. Strong depressions not expected due 
to seasonal factors. Degraded local night conditions expected.
Brief depressions may ne experienced after local dawn 30 July 
if geomagnetic activity eventuates. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C9.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   111000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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