[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*RED*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/-- 26/2217UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 231/181


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            225/175            220/170
COMMENT: Major flares possible from active solar regions 39 and 
44. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3323 3222
      Darwin              10   2323 3222
      Townsville          12   3323 323-
      Learmonth           14   2323 4--3
      Canberra            11   3323 322-
      Hobart              12   3324 2313
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2211
      Davis(Ant)          21   4444 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             17   4334 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul    16    Quiet to unsettled with storm levels expected 
                late in the UT day. 
29 Jul    40    Storm levels 
30 Jul    20    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: The halo CME observed in association with the M8-flare 
of July 26 is expected to impact the Earth late in the UT day 
of 28 July or early on 29 July. Minor and possible major storm 
levels are expected to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Jul      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
30 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected for 29-30 July due 
to increased geomagnetic activity from an anticipated CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul   120    near predicted monthly values 
29 Jul    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Jul   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 26 July 
and is current for interval 27-29 July (SWFs) . Degraded HF conditions 
are expected for 29-30 July due to increased geomagnetic activity 
from an anticipated CME. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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