[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 30 09:28:20 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4 28/2313UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.5    0023UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M5.2    0239UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.8    1033UT  possible   lower  European
  M5.0    1044UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 234/184

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            230/180            230/180
COMMENT: Moderate shock observed in solar wind 1240UT. The interplanetary 
magnetic field was northward postschock arrival, reducing geoeffectiveness. 
Flares remain possible from active solar regions 39 and 44 which are both 
show some decline. Todays first M5 at 0238UT event was associated with a 
Type II radio sweep. However, no Type IV was observed, and the event was 
not very long in duration, about 15mins. Event data suggests a possible 
weak shock arrival window 31/0700UT to 01/0800UT. Lasco imagery around 
the time of this first event appeared to show nothing too significant. 
No Type II/IV sweeps were reported overnight in association with the 
latter longer duration M5. However Lasco C2 (no C3) imagery at 1230UT shows a 
partial halo mass ejection predominately north-west directed but curling 
around to the south-east of the solar disk. It is unclear if this is 
related to the M5 event. Also, curiously, the ACE EPAM shock precursor 
flux data channel has not dropped post-shock, and at time of issue is 
still rising, implying if this trend continues, another shock may be 
in the pipe. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2221 4212
      Darwin              10   3222 4212
      Townsville           8   2221 4211
      Learmonth           11   2121 5211
      Canberra             7   2211 4202
      Hobart               6   2211 3202
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-31 3322
      Davis(Ant)          11   3--2 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   4323 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul    14    Unsettled 
31 Jul     7    Quiet 
01 Aug    16    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: A weak (10nT) and slow impulse was observed in IPS magnetometer 
data at around 1321UT. No significant activity followed. Geomagnetic storm 
forecast nervously dumped.  ACE precursor data seems to imply another shock 
could arrive over next 24 hours, even though one has already come. Active 
periods may be experienced 1 Aug due to weak effects from M5 events on 29 July. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions now not expected to to weak geomagnetic 
activity following CME shock arrival. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jul   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
31 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
01 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 28 July 
and is current for interval 29-30 July. Degraded HF conditions 
now not expected due to weak geomagnetic activity post CME shock 
arrival. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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